The Space Shuttle Program

We just experienced another shuttle tragedy. Seventeen years ago, I remembered the first. I was in Florida and saw the smoke in the sky from the explosion. I remember the shuttle program way back in the 70's when they started the first tests of the shuttle. Then my family moved to Florida about 50 miles west-northwest of the Kennedy Space Center. Each launch was quite amazing. I saw one launch from about 10 miles and witnessed many night launches. Another interesting experience was when they landed the shuttle in Florida. Although we couldn't see the shuttle landing, we could hear it's double sonic boom (one caused by its nose and the other caused by it's tail). When I moved to Texas 10 years ago, I thought my physical observations of the shuttle would come to an end. Then about 3 years ago, the shuttle was landing in Florida around 10 p.m. It was scheduled to fly just north of my Texas home. I went outside and expected something like a small jet contrail. Instead the shuttle raced across the sky with a bright intensity at least 20 times brighter than any plane and traveling at least 20 times faster. The ionization caused by re-entry into the atmosphere was much more amazing than what I had expected. The shuttle program has always been a part of my life.

Although the shuttle program has always been part of my life, I have never been that much of a space fan. The shuttle flights are interesting, but they quickly become routine. The experiments they perform are important but never seem much more exciting than experiments performed everyday in businesses across the world. The routine launches of the shuttle usually only get a few news blurbs with only occasional indepth stories. But when a tragedy happens, that changes. The program is put through a microscope. Also, the astronauts who tragically died become heros with their biographies reported and celebrated internationally. During their routine flights, the astronauts seem to be little more than regular scientists or engineers, important contributors but not heros. But after a tragedy, their lives take on a new status. If anything good can come from such a tragedy, it is this focus on the astronauts, their lives, and their quest to explore and take risks in pursuit of science.

When Will Man Return to the Moon?

And when will Man make it to Mars? My prediction is that Man won't return to the Moon this century. I predict it will be 2169 (the 200th anniversary) that Man returns to the Moon. For the first Man trip to Mars, I predict it will be a few decades after our return to the Moon.

Why will it take so long? Looking at last 33 years, the pace of space exploration has slowed greatly. Although some may say space exploration has just changed, in my opinion, it has slowed. 33 years before 1969, it was 1936. Back then there were no jet airplanes. Just flying across the Atlantic was a huge event. 33 years after walking on the Moon, Man is just orbiting the Earth. Albeit, lots of "exploration" is being done with Hubble and the space station. Science is being done. But it is only small increments of progress, no "giant leap" that was done in 1969.

Still asking why is it taking so long? It's not due to the cost or the tragedies. It's mainly from being practical. A lot of science can be done with automated space probes. For Man flights, there isn't a strong case to send Man beyond low-Earth orbit. Low-Earth orbits is all that is needed to build space stations, maintain telescopes like the Hubble, and perform space experiments in micro-gravity environments.

Also, there's a lot of technical challenges sending Man millions of miles away from Earth on Mars-like explorations. Man has to achieve a better energy source than our current chemical fuels. It's proving to be a huge challenge in finding a better fuel. It's been 50 years since research has started on utilizing fusion for energy. Still this seems decades away. If some type of new energy source can be developed that's orders of magnitude more efficient than chemical, the cost-benefit equation for Man space flights would change.

Space Exploration?

Should we even worry about Man space exploration? Other solar systems are so far away, it would take 1000's of years of space travel for Man to visit them. The planets can be explored with automated probes as they have been doing for decades. So why invest the trillions of dollars for traveling to Mars or other planets?

In a very long term perspective, space travel is just an extension to an important principle of life preservation. The survival of any species is greatly improved when that species spreads out. The more spread out the species, the better chance for their long term survival. Modern Man has been "spreading out" for the last 50,000 years or so. Evidence is strong that about 50,000 years ago, Man started populating the Earth from Africa. From DNA evidence, all cultures can trace their ancestors back to Africa. From Aborigines in Australia, to Native Americans, to Europeans, all can be traced back to Africa around 50,000 years ago. (great refereces at PBS.org on Evolution and Journey of Man)

A case can't be made to travel to Mars in the next hundred years just to ensure our species survival. However, it makes sense to continue experiments to travel and live in space. It's not about building a space colony in the next hundred years, it's about a space colony in the next million years. A million years seems like an incredible amount of time, but in the history of the Earth, it's only a tiny fraction of time. Slow and steady progress can get us into space in large numbers. However, we do need milestones that invigorate and motivate us. Each generation needs a "man-on-the-moon" experience to motivate the future scientists and politicians.

Of course this assumes nuclear war or other human or natural disaster does not end our existence first. In the very, very long term, Man's survival has to be away from Earth. Even if we can prevent asteroid disasters, the Sun will only last for 5 more billion years. At that time, it will become a red giant and the Earth will be no more.

One Small Step for a Human, One Giant Leap for People

On a lighter note, you may have noticed my reference to "Man" space exploration. I guess I should really say "human" so I include women. I remember my college English class. My instructor was kind of a feminist and implied there always have been subtle discrimination against women throughtout literature. Uses of words like "man" instead of "people" or "humans" continue this subtle discrimination. My response was "would Neil Armstrong's famous line been as dramatic if he had been PC?" My suggestion is that "man" be used to represent both males and females. Adding "Wo" to "man" gives the English term for an adult female. Why not add "pe" to "man' to give the English term for an adult male? Well... I have a feeling this probably won't win much support....

posted by Ken on 2:39 PM permalink and comments  

Post a Comment